Digital(e)ia

It's not particularly vogue to doubt the convergence theory. But given the fallout of some very serious decisions made by the crtc this year which were driven by the convergence ideal, perhaps it's worth some ink.

Let's start with the dvc box convergence requires. They're expensive. Rogers and Shaw would likely need to agree on one to make a bulk buy. At this point, with Mr. Rogers eyeing the blue chip apparati and Mr. Shaw Jr. questing after a simply functional model, they don't.

Move to the programming services. Fee for carriage is a given. When the cablecos are already paying for upwards of 32 cable channels on analog, it seems a questionable business play to pay for another 30-plus, particularly when you have to lay out multiple millions for the hardware. Besides, when you've suddenly found room to offer subscribers a cumulative 60-plus channel lineup, how many of them will be inspired to invest heavily in hardware for yet more channels they can't keep track of? Enough to make the economics make sense? Hard to see.

Maybe the telcos will come online in the next couple of years. Or maybe their trials will illustrate the difficulty of entering the broadcast distribution business and they'll decide to diversify elsewhere. Maybe, doubtfully, dth will make a dent in the market. Maybe lmcs will be more than just an unwieldy acronym 10 years from now after billions have been invested in the infrastructure. Or maybe there won't be a large enough subscriber base to justify the expenditure.

The point is, no matter how fond the masses and the media are of talking up the hypeway, a significant percentage of the population is eventually going to have to pay for it. That, unfortunately, is a crapshoot. Realistically, the Canadian broadcasting system could be left with exactly what we have now for the foreseeable future and it ain't pretty.

The specialty licence decision put the live-or-die power in the cable companies' hands. The "up by 1999" directive will keep the lawyers busy at the ccta, cab and crtc. The remaining third tier licensees will sit in limbo.

Meanwhile the Eligible Services Lists decision is rumored to have killed a deal between wic/rob-tv and the Consumer News and Business Channel. chum's MuchMoreMusic doesn't stand much of a chance with the younger music-centric content of bet. Canadian companies willing to spend tax dollars, create jobs, not to mention independent production are left paralyzed while Speedvision (wha dat?) beams in and contributes next to nothing?

Then there's the question of whither the future of tmn's pay-per-view service which is still to be determined. All this analog space has to come from somewhere.

Now, predictably, Shaw and Videotron are driving the thin edge of the wedge into dismantling the tiering and linkage rules. The applicants claim they simply want an exception to the rules for their dvc. But with a tripack of decisions in play which seem to go against in principle if not in practice, the very spirit of the Access Rules, t&l may too be eligible for the high dive.

All in the name of convergence and fair access to distribution options for all bdus when really, there's only one bdu in town.